Of course one month of data does not make a trend so upcoming reports this spring will be crucial to any conclusion. But, if in fact the participation rate begins to rise in a sustainable fashion it would not only confirm our suspicions but more importantly it would confirm a suspicion that there is more labor slack in the system than official data and the conventional wisdom is suggesting. In 1996 then Fed Chair Greenspan detected a pick up in productivity growth and adopted a policy stance that allowed the economy to expand in a non inflationary manner into the end of the century.
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